Detailed Brazil Weather/Rain Forecast

… in case of interest  ….

 

·       The forecast lower rainfall values are roughly concentrated in the Sul de Minas/Mogiana regions while higher forecast values are suggested for more southern regions (eg border areas of Sao Paulo and Parana states).
January to March period, 2015.
 
Seasonal forecast for January to March, 2015 using our internal USQ system:
·       most locations in the key Sul de Minas/Mogiana regions have a probability of getting their long-term median rainfall of between 26% and 29% for this period.
·       Most other locations in southern Brazil (especially in the far south) have an approx. 50% probability of getting their long-term median rainfall for this period.
Seasonal forecast for January to March, 2015 using the general circulation models of our collaborators of the UK and other sources: double the risk of being in the lowest 33% of possible values for the Sul de Minas/Mogiana regions. Close to normal probability values for remaining regions.
 
February to April, 2015.
Seasonal forecast for February to April,  2015 using our internal USQ system:
·       most locations in the Sul de Minas/Mogiana region have a probability of getting their long-term median rainfall of between 30% and 36% for this period.
·       Most other locations in southern Brazil (especially in the far south) have an approx. 50% probability of getting their long-term median rainfall for this period.
Seasonal forecast for the February to April total period: using the general circulation models of our collaborators in the UK and other sources: double to three times the risk of being in the lowest 33% of possible values for the Sul de Minas/Mogiana region. Close to normal probability values for remaining regions.
 
Weekly forecasts:
14/1-22/1/15:   25%-50% of normal rainfall (ie 15-30mm) in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais States   – close to normal values remaining regions (ie more southern regions) (ie 50-70mm).
22/1-30/1: 10-35mm throughout.
 
Temperatures for the January to March period: 50%-70% probability of above normal mean temperatures, especially in Sul de Minas/Mogiana.
 

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